Local scale
![](https://nbid43.ifm.liu.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screenshot-2023-05-19-at-4.17.22-PM-1024x602.png)
- Plenty but patchy and scattered potential suitable nesting habitats throughout the local area were identified.
![](https://nbid43.ifm.liu.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screenshot-2023-05-16-at-7.21.38-PM-2-1024x666.png)
- NDVI is the variable that contributed most to the model, well before all other variables
- The highest habitat suitability was reached for NDVI value between 0.12 and 0.21.
Regional scale
The potential distribution of suitable breeding habitat under the current conditions shows a patchy regional suitability pattern with high suitability areas inland, along the coastline, and along the Churchill River. This pattern encompasses both nesting and feeding habitats.
![](https://nbid43.ifm.liu.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/present-1-1024x724.png)
![](https://nbid43.ifm.liu.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/futur-1024x798.png)
Projections for the years 2050s and 2070s were made under two climate change scenarios: SSP245 (“Middle of the Road”) and SSP585 (“Fossil-fueled Development”). SSP245 represents moderate efforts to limit global warming to 2.1-4.3°C above pre-industrial levels, while SSP585 portrays a future with rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions and a temperature increase of around 3.8-7.4°C by the end of the century.
Depending on the different scenarios, there is a significant increase in potential breeding habitat in response to climate change at a regional scale.
![](https://nbid43.ifm.liu.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/table1-1024x358.png)